When you discover such a match, you should be prepared to be online shortly before it begins and stay active until it ends or you lock a profit. If you have the right information Lay on horses and earn a lot…. I explain correct score trading in much more detail here. If Coca-Cola release some good news — perhaps a new flavour which starts selling very well — the price rises and Dave can sell his shares. Don't fall for that rubbish!
Lay the draw and football trading strategies blog offering you tips and guides on how to trade my personal lay the draw strategies to make extra cash. For my monthly football trading results, How To Lay The Draw On Betfair; Lay The Draw Football Trading Tips; Lay The Draw Strategies: LTD1; Lay The Draw Strategies: LTD2.
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Finally, we have the simple fact that trading is more profitable and even the best football betting system is no match for a skilled football trader. The challenge, of course, is how do you find Betfair trading systems that work so that you can take full advantage. In this article I will explain how football trading differs from betting, how to start out with Betfair football trading strategies and how you can aim to trade football for a living.
It's not easy to achieve, but it's not as difficult as you think either. You can think of trading as football betting in-play. Unlike football betting systems, you can enter a trade once the match has started, exit before it has finished or both. You could even use a pre-match football trading strategy which means that your trade has finished before the match even kicks off!
As well as being able to back teams at better prices, with trading you are able to lock in profits and avoid the agony of late goals spoiling your bet. There are lots of Betfair strategies that work and I'll share a few of them with you shortly. A traditional bookmaker offers punters the chance to back various outcomes. It might be the home team to win, over 2. However, at a betting exchange it is the punters who set the prices on both sides of the book. In other words, you can choose to back an outcome as if you were using a traditional bookmaker or go opposite and lay it.
Essentially, you can become a bookie! I have explained betting exchanges in much more detail here , including back and lay bets, commissions payable, Betfair's Premium Charge and more.
What is important from a football trading point of view is that you can back and lay exactly the same outcome at different stages of a football match and at different prices.
It is this which makes Betfair trading strategies so profitable. From a Betfair trading point of view, a football match is nothing more than a 90 minute stock market. He checks the financial history of the company, strength of the competition, current market conditions and so on. Based on all the data he can find, Dave makes an informed judgement about future profit and growth potential. He looks at the share price and, if it shows some value, he decides to buy. If Coca-Cola release some good news — perhaps a new flavour which starts selling very well — the price rises and Dave can sell his shares.
The difference between the price Dave bought his shares at and the price he sold them for is his profit. Switch out Coca-Cola for Manchester City and the same criteria apply.
As a football trader, Dave checks previous performance, strength of the opposition, recent form and any other useful statistics that he can find. It may be that Dave expects Manchester City to score the first goal of the game during the first half. He then has a number of markets he can choose to trade in; match odds, next goal, half-time score and many more. Each of these markets lasts for a maximum of 90 minutes and Dave will know the outcome of his investment in that time.
Price movement is all you need to make money with football trading strategies on Betfair. The only challenge is that you need to figure out which prices are going to move and in which direction so that you can "buy" or "sell" in the football stock market. These are the main reasons why betting exchange prices move:. Time decay is the process of prices reducing over time. You may well have seen a very low price towards the end of a football match and that's because there's not much time for either of the teams to score a goal.
Because it's so likely in this situation that the match will end , the price is low even though it might have been very high at kick-off. If there are no goals in the first half, will often be around a third of the price it was at kick-off. The price continues to tick down as the second half progresses and hits 1. Goals change games and they affect prices too.
For example, if a match kicks off with the home team priced at 2. The price of 2. That's quite a drop! That's a great example of the power of football trading! Red cards also affect prices, often causing markets to overreact. Many fans think that a team with 10 men will automatically go on to lose by a large number of goals, but traders know very differently.
A man team may sit back to defend, especially if the score is level. It's not very easy to break down a well organised defence when a team has 11 men and it's not that much easier against 10 either. The market, however, usually moves in favour of the team with 11 men and sometimes that isn't helpful. Personally, I don't trade matches with red cards. There are so many fixtures played worldwide that I can quite happily avoid taking any unnecessary risks.
If a match I'm already trading has a red card, I try to scratch exit the trade for no profit or loss and move on to the next opportunity. Liquidity is the amount of money available in a betting exchange market and it varies greatly from match to match. When you want to trade out, you need to have someone else offering the price you need on Betfair otherwise you're stuck. Match Odds markets tend to have the best liquidity and in bigger leagues, such as the English Premier League, liquidity is never a problem.
There is always money waiting to be matched on both sides of the market — back and lay — so you can get in and out of trades whenever you like. In smaller leagues, perhaps English League One, liquidity will never be as good. It may be enough to trade on a Tuesday evening when there are not a huge number of fixtures, but at 3pm on a Saturday there will be lots of bigger leagues sucking up the available money.
You may well be able to get in and out of trades with smaller stakes, but you might need to wait a few minutes to be matched. There will be times when a goal will go against you while you wait, so bear that additional risk in mind. Smaller markets in smaller leagues are even more troublesome.
Whereas you might get away with the League One Match Odds market on a Saturday afternoon, a Betfair trading system which uses first half match odds will be far more difficult - perhaps even impossible - to trade.
If in doubt, stay out. Most new traders believe that they just need to find the best football trading strategy and then they will make a lot of money. Unfortunately, it's not quite as simple as that. You'd be sat at home, pulling money out of Betfair like it's a magic ATM. But you don't do that, do you? Amazingly, some people still fall for the promises of easy riches.
There are lots of shady characters online who will tell you that they have unlocked various football trading 'secrets' which has allowed them to develop the best Betfair trading strategy so now sports trading for a living is no longer a dream and so on.
Don't fall for that rubbish! While there are certainly low risk football trading strategies, there's no such thing as a football betting system which never loses. You will probably come across websites which try to claim otherwise, but ask yourself It's just not believable in the real world.
Before we investigate other aspects of football trading, let's take a quick look at a few popular football systems. This is the most popular inplay trading strategy and one that just about every football trader uses regularly. It really couldn't be any simpler; you lay the draw in the Match Odds market and when the favourites score a goal, the draw prices rises and you trade out for a profit.
The more the draw price rises, the more profit you make. Lay the draw LTD is certainly not as profitable as it was when I started trading as there are so many using it. Whereas I used to regularly lay the draw in the Match Odds market during the first half, nowadays the profit margins have been squeezed as everyone tries to back the draw to lock in profit. When there are more people trying to back the draw than lay it, the draw price lowers and the available profit is reduced.
The bigger problem is that losses are just the same as they were before, so it takes more smaller profits to cover them.
With this in mind, I have completely stopped laying the draw during the full match and instead I split each match into the first and second half. Doing this reduces liabilities and increases profits which works in my favour. The downside, of course, is having less time to find a goal. I talk about lay the draw trading in a lot more detail here.
While lay the draw is fairly mundane, correct score trading strategies are much more exciting! There are many ways to trade the correct score market and, because the prices are much higher than the Match Odds market, the profits can be substantially more.
However, that can also mean more risk because laying - especially in the first half - is far more expensive. A patient approach to trading correct scores is essential. It is very easy to create large liabilities and then, if goals are not scored, those liabilities become losses and seriously dent your trading bank. Any correct score strategy you use must be well balanced between risk and reward.
You also need a long-term view as there is no way you are going to hit target scores over and over. The Match Odds market has 3 possible outcomes - win, lose or draw - whereas the Correct Score market has 19! Unless you have a crystal ball, you don't know whether a match will end , or any score in between and this is why correct score betting is so difficult.
Most traders target groups of scores, aiming to get close enough to them at the right time to make a profit. It's possible to patiently chip away at liabilities and often end up with a 'scratch' trade no profit or loss but aggressive trading will result in large losses from time to time, there's no doubt about that. At Goal Profits we use a number of correct score systems, but the majority of our trading focuses on banking steady and more regular profits. I explain correct score trading in much more detail here.
There are many other markets which are suitable for live trading football. In fact, almost any market on Betfair can be traded as long as there is enough liquidity. In other words, as long as there are traders looking to back and lay so that you are able to get your bets matched. There are a number of trading systems based around both sides of the book and traders will often specialise in one of them.
Some football traders back Under 2. Time decay works in just the same way here, moving prices as the minutes tick by. If an early goal goes in, they will often trade out for a small loss or hope to get back to scratch before a second goal is scored. I have tried backing 'unders' and I made some profits here and there, but hoping that goals don't go in was very uncomfortable. To me, football is about scoring goals and I sit firmly on that side of the fence. Of course, exchange betting is just like the game of football While I may be backing Over 2.
It is possible to make a profit before a match evens kicks off! Pre-match trading strategies still rely on price movement, but there's no time decay or chance of a goal going in to move the market. Without these in-play events, prices are much steadier but they do shift up and down and that creates opportunities to profit. Because there is less risk, traders can use much larger stakes and some even use their entire bank.
Pre-match markets generally don't move too much and most 'scalping' strategies rely on making a tick or two of profit. The challenge - as always - is knowing which way they will move. One of the most popular Betfair pre-match trading strategies revolves around team news.
If Chelsea's top scorer isn't playing, the markets will move once the news breaks. While we know that Chelsea will simply name another top international striker to play in his place, the markets react and present an opportunity to 'scalp' some profit. If Chelsea are playing a lesser team then they will probably win anyway and the Match Odds market won't move much, but the Over 2.
Pre-match trading is especially profitable during early cup rounds when team news is announced. If one of the elite Premier League teams is drawn against opposition from League Two, they will often field a weakened team.
Once the market becomes aware, prices move and there are profits to be made. It monitors all upcoming fixtures, tracks prices and identifies moving markets. Having all of that information on one page makes pre-match trading much easier and quicker.
We have an exclusive deal with Fairbot - click here - which gives you 15 months access for the price of You already know that a betting exchange matches a back and a lay bet. One wins, the other loses. Profitable football trading is simply a case of winning more than you lose, but in order to do that you have to take money from other people who are aiming to do exactly the same to you.
It's a ruthless game of cat and mouse and you cannot allow emotion to get in the way of your decision making. As soon as you lose control - perhaps to the temptation to chase a loss - you will lose money.
Legendary investor Warren Buffett once said, " the Stock Market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient " and it's exactly the same on Betfair, Smarkets, Matchbook or any other betting exchange. If you log in on a Saturday afternoon looking for entertainment, you will lose money.
Of course you will have winning days, but overall you will lose. You must be patient and disciplined enough wait for opportunities to outsmart the market. Even the best Betfair strategy in the world will fail if you don't have the patience to use it at the right times! You will get bored and risk your money on something you shouldn't which we've all done at one time or another. Professional Betfair traders avoid losses as much as possible. While you may argue that all bettors, traders and gamblers do that, it's subtly different.
Avoiding a loss is not the same as trying to win a bet. It's a strange concept for most who are new to trading because their mindset is geared up towards winners, winners and more winners. A simple football betting system usually has two outcomes; win or lose. When you trade, however, there are always three possible results; win, lose or scratch.
A scratch trade is one in which you neither make a profit nor a loss though remember this As long as they follow the rules and import the strategy in the same software, it should be pretty straightforward. And yet, things can still go wrong.
The most common challenges for many automated strategies is liquidity. Using a bot which only wants to match a few pounds early doors is fine.
But move up a gear and getting a few hundred pounds matched at the price the bot needs very often fails. So most early doors strategies that show potential will ultimately fail trading at any scale.
This then means that most trading bot strategies need to run around 10 minutes before the off. They may also need to go inplay. Here is a simple automated lay strategy that has stood the test of time. Over 8 years of profit but still with a losing month or two each year.
The rules are simple — above and below — and with the help of a bot it is set and forget. The system has a low monthly volatility with slow steady profits that in the long run, with the help of compounding, can have a great impact on your betting bank. You will note that the maximum lay price is evens at 2.
This a low-liability laying formula that uses low stakes to grow your bank and soon you may be in the comfortable position of increasing your stakes as your bank increases.
I explain how football trading differs from betting, how to start out with Betfair football trading strategies and how you can aim to trade football for a living. It's not easy to achieve, but it's not as difficult as you think either. Goal Profits is the #1 rated Betfair football trading community, having been voted the best SIX times! Learn how to trade football alongside professionals. Here's a set of 9 proven Betfair football strategies that work! They including trading and also value betting systems. you will often see correct score results or other better option priced very high. If you decide to go for odds of 10 or higher, you will face a lot of variance. Despite the positive long-term expectations, the probability.