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View Full Article with Comments 3. It was a full day of headlines on Friday with the main one a report that Trump has told his cabinet yesterday he wants to impose China tariffs. He's already been found guilty to counts that will lead to several years in jail and with this plea he will get more jailtime and has agreed to forfeit four bank accounts and give up all his property. To others, it's a way to facilitate transactions. Marijuana legalization is a great story.

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Thank You for Submitting Your Review,! Note that your submission may not appear immediately on our site. A Bitcoin has no yield but it has some utility.

To some, that utility is replacing the US dollar as a global transparent currency. To others, it's a way to facilitate transactions. And for others still, it's a handy tool for criminal transactions.

How you price it then, depends on how you view the future utility. Another way to price it is simply looking at how others view it. You might believe that all of those utilities are baseless but if you believe that others are buying it because they believe those things, then it's rational to buy.

The only trade on BitCoin is the hype trade. The fundamentals don't matter. The only thing that matters is how enthusiastic the true believers are. I also touched on that here: The idea is that something can always rise so long as there is another person who believes it will. You can argue that Bitcoin was simply a great story.

It was full of buzzwords about transparency, trust, tracking, efficiency plus it was just complicated enough that it wasn't accessible yet alluring in the way that all technical innovations are. The price essentially tracked the rise in its exposure. As more people learned about it, a certain portion invested. For crypto, a month or so before the top, I remember talking to a distant relative who is an absolute blowhard. He had just bought some and I told my wife that had to be the beginning of the end.

Other people were telling stories about their grandparents were asking them how to buy crypto. Joe Kennedy, John F Kennedy's father, famously said he sold his entire stock portfolio before the crash because a shoeshine boy gave him some stock tips. And he figured that when the shoeshine boys have tips, the market was too popular for its own good.

Imagine a beauty pageant, where the judges knew that, because beauty was in the eye of the beholder, the contest would be decided on the judge's perception of beauty. Someone who wanted to predict the outcome would have to assess the judge's perceptions, not the contestant's beauty. As a result, your vote for the winner would not depend on who you thought was prettiest. Instead, your vote would depend on how you thought the judges would vote. In anything where there is no intrinsic value, utility or there is so much uncertainty that it's impossible to evaluate, there is no real analysis of the market.

The great bubble at the moment is in marijuana stocks. The story is that it will be legalized. That's already happened in Uruguay and in October it will happen in Canada. That set off a bonanza of speculation about how companies will make a mint selling marijuana. Pot stocks have absolutely soared. It started last year in Canada with some producers rising 10x in a few months. A second wave of the bubble has kicked off on the belief that marijuana will eventually be legalized globally.

Marijuana is extremely easy to grow. It's called weed because you can grow it in a ditch. Sure, the quality might vary but if you could grow a lower-quality iPhone in your back yard, then Apple wouldn't be a trillion dollar company. But in a bubble that doesn't matter. Marijuana legalization is a great story.

People undoubtedly spend a lot of money on pot and companies could make money doing it. It's not a story I believe yet it's compelling enough that fools around the world are going to believe it. ForexLive Here's the Google search trends chart for 'weed stocks'. The lesson is simple. When you're evaluating some assets, you don't necessarily need to be able to make sense of them. You are just evaluating the story. If it's compelling enough, the asset will continue to rise until the supply of fools is exhausted.

There remain some substantive differences Barnier: It's entirely natural to think short-term neutral may rise above long-run estimate US business inventories for July 0. US consumer is very strong US import prices GBP shorts remain the largest spec position Markets:. It was a full day of headlines on Friday with the main one a report that Trump has told his cabinet yesterday he wants to impose China tariffs.

Yesterday's rally was completely wiped out in a 60 pip fall to 1. That takes the shine off a nice two-day bounce from 0. Cable news from Raab and Barnier wasn't a big surprise and didn't have much of an effect. Cable was caught in a broad US dollar bid that was built on solid data and talk about the Fed hiking beyond long-term neutral next year.

The White House says the President has been clear that he and his administration will continued to take action to address China's unfair trade practices. The tariffs are coming. Daly has worked at the New York Fed since and is the current research director. She will take the job on Oct 1. According to Bloomberg that her past speeches hint she could prefer a slow-going approach to rate hikes, which is typical of the San Francisco Fed. Two weeks ago, Argentina was asking the IMF to speed up payments.

I was on BNNBloomberg yesterday talking about global currencies. If you skip ahead to 2: Draghi said risks were balanced, so there must have been some people on the other side.

Draghi was surprisingly upbeat yesterday but it's clear that there's some worries, especially with a few weak data points.

There's been no reaction to this headline, which hit right at the top of the hour on Reuters. It's possible that someone had it an hour earlier and it would explain the drop then.

Drilling picks back up but has stalled for a few months. NPR reports that Manafort's cooperation agreement with the special counsel does not include matters involving the Trump campaign. The person asked not to be identified," NPR reports. That vastly diminishes the political risk for Trump.

It makes sense, seeing as he would want a much better deal if he was going to sell out the President. His best chance at freedom any time soon is still a pardon. The euro is at the lows of the day, down 60 pips to 1. There aren't any new headlines behind the drop. It's not yet clear how much cooperation he will be doing, or what he knows. He's certainly not getting a sweetheart deal. He's already been found guilty to counts that will lead to several years in jail and with this plea he will get more jailtime and has agreed to forfeit four bank accounts and give up all his property.

However on the Trump file, it's all about Trump about to put tariffs on China. More supply in landlocked Alberta without any means to get it to market has resulted in a massive discount but it's approaching crisis levels at the moment. If only there were some kind of safe, extremely efficient way to get oil to tidewater. Even with today's bounce, the move is modest in the weekly perspective. Taking a look at the daily chart, the bounce is modest and that will keep the pressure on the downside.

Title text for next article. Join our Telegram group. Get the ForexLive Newsletter. The greater the story, the greater the bubble. Fri 14 Sep The greater fool theory explains almost every bubble Some things have an intrinsic value. This is all called the greater fool theory. The problem is that eventually you run out of people. How do you trade a bubble? Instead, you are simply evaluating what other people think.

View Full Article with Comments 3. ForexLive Americas FX news wrap: US retail sales miss but trade worries rise Forex news for North American trade on September 14, GBP shorts remain the largest spec position Markets: Have a great weekend.

Forex news for North American trade on September 14, Asset 24 View More. The US major indices close with mixed results. Up on the week. Nasdaq leads the gains for the week The major US indices are ending the day with modest gains. The high for the day reached The low extended to

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